|Seattle||28||1:00 PM ET||*Seattle +3||*2.00|
Seattle comes in as our top play for Divisional Weekend, and there are a number of reasons why:
-Seattle is 12-5 ATS and 12-5 SU (winning by an average 10.41 points per game this season).
-They have had a little over a 2% more difficult SOS than Atlanta here.
-Seattle is 7-0 ATS 6-1 SU against good plus .500 teams this season. They’re 10-1 ATS since 2011 against plus .500 teams.
-Seattle is 13-2 ATS (10-6 SU) as a 3 or more point underdog.
Everyone thinks that Atlanta is the real deal after they pummeled the erratic New York Giants 34-0.
Have a look at who (from the playoffs) Seattle has wooped:
Green Bay 14-12 (W)
New England 24-23 (W)
San Francisco 6-13 (L)
Minnesota 30-20 (W)
San Francisco 42-13 (W)
Washington 24-14 (W)
(5-1 SU against playoff teams)
Denver 27-21 (W)
Washington 24-17 (W)
(2-0 SU against playoff teams) – 13-3 Overall – What does that record really say?
Teams Atlanta beat: KC , DEN , SDG , CAR , WAS , OAK , PHI , DAL , ARI , TAM , NYG , DET
*None of these teams match up to Seattle except for maybe the New York Giants. One of Atlanta’s losses was to the Saints by the way who had the worst defense in the NFL giving up 7042 total yards. That’s right next to guess who: The Giants…who allowed 6134.
Other thoughts / systems:
*Since 2003, road teams play a consecutive road game get undervalued: they’re 416-315-17 (56.9%) ATS. That is 284-207-11 (57.8%) ATS if they’re an underdog.
-Road playoff dogs that put up at least 20 points are 43-10-0 Against the spread since 2001. We’re expecting the Seahawks to get in 25 points.
-The Seahawks can overwhelm Atlanta with the rush: they’re getting 4.8 yards per attempt vs. the Falcons getting 3.7 yards per attempt. We’ve seen this work in College Bowl games so I might expect Pete Carroll to work with this…probably a lot.
*The Seahawks are better at pressuring the quarterback. Since 2004, in the playoffs, teams averaging more sacks that the other team are 62-46-1 ATS (57.4%). If that differential is > 0.4 then it is 31-21-0 ATS (60.7%).
Best of luck on this game. That last link likes the Broncos, Packers, Seahawks and Texans.
The raw numbers agree on Seattle and Denver there. So if you think Denver can do it, maybe add them for a unit.