MLB RAW NUMBERS
MLB started off insanely well and then sucked it while we were getting prematurely confident.
I’m going to say it again: it is still early in the season, but now little by little we’re getting some raw numbers with the basic annotation.
Still though, I recommend following Systems before Raw numbers until around the very beginning of next month.
Here’s what I have today that you should take with a grain of salt:
Texas is our Strongest play here clearly with a “Medium” Raw number projection plus the following systems:
In database history, sub .600 early season (<28 games under their belt) underdogs are 1303-1590 (45.0%, +144.63 units) SU
Currently 22-33 -5.73 units I’m aware which is why this bet isn’t 1 unit, but it also isn’t a half unit…
That system was marked our primary system to follow for the first month and our official email record mimics a microcosm of it (a
loss of 2 units), but consider that the average number of games per season with the system is over 200 and we’re only around 50 games deep. So extrapolate this one 4 times and we’ll see where it lands!
If this system doesn’t come through for the first month and a half, no big deal. It will have certainly been worth the shot. Underdogs nearly on the blind (which is what that system is) is a tried and true way to go in the first month. I have a separate account personally where ALL I do is bet ALL Underdogs in the first month and in the last 7 years it is up a solid 22.7% despite some horrible years recently which I STILL consider deviant.
Anyways, I have a couple of statistically significant trends for the Baltimore wager.
Nothing I’d really base a bet off of…maybe use as a filter, but let’s see where these ones go:
Trend 1: Since 2014, the Boston Red Sox are just
23-41 SU -29.55 units at home when the total is set high, over 8 runs.
Trend 2: If this one doesn’t blow your mind, I’m not sure what will. Buck Showalter came in to coach the Baltimore Orioles in 2010 and since then they’ve ripped it up
420-412 +64.69 units. THE MOST PROFITABLE
team to bet on the blind in that time frame….and by a landslide. Has the public caught on though? Sure they have, when Showalter first came on in 2010 the average line for the O’s that season was +149.5! Now, since 2012 they got an average line of -107.2.
Seems like we’ve lost value right? Wrong! While the O’s average line has increased they’ve only gotten better under Buck Showalter going 189-151 +34.01 units in that time frame! Also, let’s check out how the O’s team record has gone since 2010:
2010: 40.7%
2011: 42.6%
2012: 57.1%
2013: 52.5%
2014: 58.6%
Current season: 5-4 +55.6%
The Bottom line: Buck Showalter came and he is
still conquering. My bold projection for the O’s is that they’ll be a good betting proposition and not to be bet against too often until Buck wins the World Series for Baltimore.
Extra:
Under Buck Showalter the O’s are
180-162 +42.26 units +11.1% roi with a total set between 8.5 and 10.
As Road Dogs under Showalter, the O’s are +45.88 +12.9% roi which of course applies today.
