Weekend Attendance in MLB Sports Betting
Up until about the end of July, you see Saturday and Sunday average per day attendance (since 2004) hit a peak and then continue on a non-stop decline all the way up until playoffs.
The average low point over a 12 year period is September 12th at 31,488.69 (low point) attendees on Saturdays or Sundays (the average and median over all data are 35,907.03 attendees and 34,806.52 attendees respectively). On average over the same 12 year period, July 28ths hit a peak of 38,066.85 (high point) attendees.
HOW TO PROFIT OR SAVE LOSSES
I’ve already said, almost every day this month, days before this month happened, and many times in previous years, to look out for betting against home favorites in July as, historically, they’ve profitted on the blind. There is an obvious correlation between this occurence and the ebb and flow of ball park attendance. That is, when more people come to the game, the home team teams to do better, win more money and kill your road dog or fav bets.
Moving forward…
We did well avoiding road underdogs primarily (i.o.w.: not going against home favorites this month). Yesterday I took one, foolishly, and it of course lost (Pirates). So what happens now?
This month (July 2016), Home Favorites between -170 and -230 went 51-14 78.5% SU +24.07 units. This is right in a spot the public tends to feel comfortable: not too cheap and chancy, not too chalked up. Each month, we assess where the public made off and the is a setting point for where you’ll find traps moving forward; or call it a point of hypothesized regression.
Bottom line: From this point on, my base line thought is to cap the game well and be mindful of a hypothesized trap trend for when you have -170 to -230 home favorites due to a public bias that may have developed over the last month. Will tend to avoid them and if we don’t, consider passing those picks if you’re a safe player or got a fat bankroll and are looking to cash it out now as the season begins to wind down…