Free Play – MNF Teaser (Detroit/Chicago)
DETROIT v. CHICAGO – Side and Total :
#430 Detroit Lions -0.5 (from the -6.5 spread)
DET Lions | CHI Bears UNDER 53 (from the 47 game total)
WINNER!
I also like the under. Teams get exhausted after a week of Football. If they have a short week they might carry over some injuries or emotional stuff. If things were pretty extreme (like the final ref call on Detroit game 1 in 2010), the team might remember that the next week. Here's something that carries over: Since 2001, the under is 101-74-3 57.7% if the team and their opponent each scored 27 points or more and are both off of wins. This improves linearly the more points the teams put up last week. Last week, the Bears put up 34 and the Lions put up 34. The trend is 24-15-0 (under the total) now for 61.5%. Here is the SDQL link if anyone is interested:
p:points>=27 and op:points>=27 and po:points<p:points and opo:points<op:points and site==home and season>2000 Try typing in "and day" to see how a MNF game goes or try putting in different values where the 27's are to see the linear correlation. MNF games are 13-8 under the total (61.9%). If this one goes under, I don't like all the points for the Lions here. Then again using Monday as you day contradicts the logic a little bit: the most logical way to play this would be to stack big points from last week, and now a short week (so on a Thursday), and results do show the under working out best on Thursday. I have a projected total of 43.73 here, and probably an above average number of injuries so I'll run with it. Small 6 pt. teaser on both of these things.
