MLB Trends

#001 In August, home +165+ non-division dogs off of a loss are 17-17 (+12.95 units). That’s +39.9% roi on the runline (a 1.8% increase).

#002 Since 2004, Away Division Dogs off of a win in the first month of MLB with +170 to +110 (inclusive) odds are SU (straight up): 190-195 (49.35%) +$6,082 (that’s +15.8% roi on a 385 game sample). That means about 55 games a year or 1.83 games per day in the month of April. You have a lot to work with there. [SDQL LINK]

#003 MEMORIAL DAY SYSTEM: 26-6 (79.3%, +17.44 units). Went 6-2 +4.28 units (+41.8% roi)

#004 Since 2009, Favorites are 1080-676 (61.5%, +113.92 units, +4.4% roi) SU in July.

#005 In August, home -150 to -200 division favorites (TEX) off of a loss (not series game 1) are 50-13 (+1.9 rpg, +28.1 units, +26% roi). -LAA is 3-18 (-2.4 rpg, -13.5 units) since 2010 as a 130+ road dog off of a win. -Texas is 120-78 +15.31 units since 2011 against right handed starters since 2011.

#006 Since 2004, Between 9/3’s and 10/25’s, Dogs off of a win (regular games, No Sundays) are 518-597 +129.69 units SU.

#007 In the second half of an MLB season, look for a plus .500 home favorite revenging 2 or more straight losses as home favorites to another .500 opponent. Since 2005, this system is 67-21 (+1.6 rpg, +31.9 units, +22.7% roi). If the line is between -110 and -180, you are talking +40.9% roi and a 82.8% (53-11) winning clip!

#008 Since 2004, Home Favorites are 75-29 (72.1%, +31.8 units) SU when they were shut out last game in July. 

#009 Since 2008, the Under is 81-40-14 when you have a matchup where the Road team is on a 4+ game win streak and they’re sporting a win record between .500 and .600 on the season.

#010 Since 2004, Between 9/3’s and 10/25’s, Dogs off of a win (regular games, No Sundays) are 510-586 +127.92 units SU. 

#011 April dog system: 729-681 (51.7%, +244.51 units) SU

#012 Since 2004, road favorites or Small road dogs in Augusts off of a win facing a team off of a loss are 315-211 (59.9%, +52.85 units, +7.8% roi) SU with some additional filtering that can be seen via the SDQL link.

#013 Since 2004, plus .500 dogs vs. sub .500 dogs off of 6+ losses of their last 8 games are 83-56 (59.7%, +41.17 units, +29.6% roi) SU.

#014 Since  2009, Home plus .500 dogs facing a plus .500 team seeking revenge for a shut out are 32-18 (+19.75 units, +39.5% roi) SU. The public loves betting for revenge to occur in baseball, and they usually will double up on it or something. The books love letting them think that they have a 99.9% win record on martingale savoring the one little screw up that loses them their whole roll. 

#015 1. Late in Regular season 2. Large Favorite (over -150); No more than -300 3. Very bad batting average (<=0.26) 4. Vs. Pitcher with good ERA (<=4.5) – 695-283 71.1% +191.51 units

#016 System: At the end of the week, before the weekend; home teams off of 4+ straight losses go 137-173 -63.93 units. A good fade. Since 2014, the Rangers have gone 15-39 -22.67 units as either road favs or home dogs playing at the same site as last game. 

#017 Since 2004, weekday divisional road dogs off of a win have gone 1090-1290 +192.57 units +8.1% roi.

#018 Since 2004, Sub .600 Underdogs against plus .600 teams off of a win go 623-715 153.71 units.

#019 Since 2004, underdogs in April facing a plus .400 teams off of a game where they didn’t win by more than 2 (or lost) and didn’t get shut out are 936-1037 (+176.72 units) SU. I’ve filtered that system down a bit to a 732-711 (+218.6 units) SU variation.

#020 A road team off of a road game in a conference matchup is 45-14-2 ATS after each team scored 24+ points.

#021 Since 2011, a team off of a game with 1 or 0 turnovers is 146-80-1 SU against a team with a turnover margin of 2 or more last game.

#022 Road dogs in April off of a loss vs. a team off of a win: 542-640 +90.35 units 

#023 Since 2014, the Boston Red Sox are just 23-41 SU -29.55 units at home when the total is set high, over 8 runs. 

#024 Since 2014, the Rangers have gone 15-39 -22.67 units as either road favs or home dogs playing at the same site as last game. 

#025 Road dogs in April off of a loss vs. a team off of a win: 542-640 +90.35 units

#026  The home team has gone 102-61 +30.26 units, +13.8% roi for a 62.6% win rate on the blind on Fourth of July! Avoiding final games of series, very high and very low totals plus staying away from night games past 9:00PM where the home crowd might not be showing up in bulk brings this to a whopping 71-32 +36.36 units, +26.5% roi, and a 68.9% winning clip. 

#027 Post Steroid Era, the under is 129-70-13 +51.43 units when the home team has been allowing <5 rpg for 3+ straight, and the opponent is off of a 1 run win; total is greater than 8.

#028 Sub .490 Home Favorites between -230 and -145 are just 107-105 -69.96 units SU vs. a good .500 to .700 team in the first half of the season.

#029 Home Favorites are money on the blind in July; the heart of the season; They have been 820-453 186.87 units SU under the following conditions: it isn’t Monday or Tuesday; No extreme lines; it isn’t series game 1; no 1 or 2 game series; no games that start very late at night and they didn’t just have game with a lot of errors.

#030 Since July 2015, Home -120 to -250 favorites are 137-45 +70.2 units SU +25.2% roi as long as they didn’t shut out their last opponent and they neither won a blowout or got blown out last game. 

#031 Home Favorites; sub .490 going for the sweep at home vs. a sub .500 opponent 204-93 +68.94 units + 2 other systems up.

#032 The Under is 57-39-3 +11.8% roi when a plus .510 home dog is playing a divisional game vs. a plus .610 opponent.

#033 Sub .600 early season (<28 games played) underdogs. 1426-1759 +130.48 units SU -Active on: D-Backs, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, A’s and Twins (all sides!)

#034 Home Favorites are 817-490 (62.5%, +86.93 units, +4.3% roi) SU and 574-731 (+56.67 units, +4.2% roi) on the runline in July since 2009.

#035 Since 2004, Home Teams who have lost 12 or more of their last 15 games are a huge 31-7 (81.6%, +24.3 units, +45.4% roi) SU.

#036  At the end of the week, before the weekend; home teams off of 4+ straight losses go 137-173 -63.93 units. A good fade. 

#037  Home favorites going for a 4 game series sweep against a sub .500 team are 92-45 +19.16 units.

#038 1. Playoffs 2. Dog off of a win 3. Road dog of +110 to +140 3b. OR Home dog of > -110 64-30 +46.71 +49.4% roi SU. up at +47.73 units now.

#039 190+ home favorites in the playoffs are 20-7 74.1 +5.4 units (9.3% roi) SU.

#040 Since July 2015, Home -120 to -250 favorites are 137-45 +70.2 units SU +25.2% roi as long as they didn’t shut out their last opponent and they neither won a blowout or got blown out last game.

#041 Road dog Starters with zero wins go 46-105 -37.55 units in August. Buck Farmer looking for his first win and Keyvius Sampson looking to just be above .500

#042 How MLB Teams do On the Fourth of July? Home favorites on this holiday have been big winners every single year but last (marginal). Since 2004 home favorites are 43-21 (67.1%) +10.95 units (avg. line -153). Home dogs are 22-15 (59.4%) +12.8, **but with inconsistency by season. All away teams are 38-67 -29.15 units since 2004 on the fourth of July or a flat +23.65 units fading them all (2 marginal losing years for that [2010 and 2005]).

#043 Very hot system active: Later in the season when stats mean something, a large favorite with a poor batting average (<=0.26) facing a starter with a 4.5 ERA or better goes 1028-467 (68.8%, +206.5 units, +7.8% roi) SU. Better in the AL fyi… up at +217.93 units now.

#044 Second half of the season; looking to avoid small favorites or dogs off of a 7+ run loss….767-1062 -215.84 units

#045 Since 2004, when the total has been very high (>10), the Underdog has profitted on the blind: 740-944 +23.67 units. Large sample, simple premise; this has to be considered whatever you’re doing.

#046 MLB has ‘handles’; 7 and 9. That is, where the actual scores of games most commonly land. With that said, the total 8.5 is a funny one right under a major handle. 8.5 is also the most commonly lined total (right a bit above 9) in all games since 2004. In those games, the home dog is 386-410 +62.90 units SU when the game went under the total.