St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals

Carpenter vs. JacksonDuel of the pitchers here? Probably not the best pitcher duel ever, but it will be interesting to see who breaks their trend today: *Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals is just 1-8 (-2.0 rpg, -11.9 units) since 2011 in all day games. That’s 6-14 -17.85 units since 2010; however, prior to 2010, Carpenter was 31-14 +8.5 units in day games. Our models like pitchers to regress to either league averages or their own. *Edwin Jackson is a nasty 5-13 (-0.8 rpg, -11.37 units) with the Washington Nationals (this season). Prior to that he was 41-38 -6.5 units in this spot so -17.87 units combined loss and nothing to really “regress” to. This is a pass. Raw numbers give the small home favorite the overall edge.