Here is a very simple situation / system coming up for MLB that I’ll share on the house:
*Early in the MLB season, why would anyone want to bet favorites? Or put another way, risk more than a coin toss on any given team? Because you like the color of their jersey or think that how they did last year will be how their first month or so goes? I think not…
We don’t yet know who the teams are. Records like 0-2 or 5-10 or 10-5 are meaningless considering sample size and how long the season is. If you take into consideration the idea that early games are a coin toss and (fact) coin tosses will favor the underdog in the long run. Also, good players and coaches understand (like quality bettors I’ll add) that the season is a grind and don’t get down on themselves while they’re about 28-30 games in WHATEVER their record is.
Just so you know, there is no back fitting going on here. I’ll show you the idea / base system:
THE SYSTEM
*Look for a team that is an underdog who has not yet played 28 or more games.
SDQL: ’28 > game number and line > 105′
That’s it. Nothing else:
A TEST:
Let’s put it another way. Testing the premise is something worth doing.
Put it through its paces under the broadest parameters and see is the IDEA and LOGIC is there and sound.
*Look for a team that is an underdog in the first month of MLB:
month=4 and line > 105
1314-1747 (42.9%, +37.92 units) SU
CHECK!
I like using game number better in this case as it more accurately describes my hypothesis.
Honestly, you could leave it at just that though:
(28 > game number and line > 105)
Less is more. Simpler is better.
In a follow up to this post though, I’ll show you one way I got this to a 1303-1590 +144.63 units +5% roi system.
I’m separating the posts to show you that the following is NOT back fitting.
This is a viable premise ON ITS OWN as are all of my system. I make sure of that. If you don’t do this step you’re like the kid in school who cheats on a test: sure you got the grade you wanted, but are you going to win later on in life?
Stay tuned…
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So last email we came up with:
’28 > game number and line > 105″
Totally viable on its own in its simplest forum which includes two requirements (parameters) and appears to confirm the hypothesis that early MLB games are a coin flip and tie goes to the underdog.
LET’S AMP IT UP A BIT!
*28 > game number>1 and line > 105′
(It isn’t the team’s opening game of the season)
’28>game number>1 and line > 105 and month!=3‘
(Filter out March while it is still freezing cold…uncharted territory).
“28>game number>1 and month!=3 and 105<=line<275“
(Forget enormous underdogs. There might actually be a reason. Minor filter there though)
28>game number>1 and month!=3 and 105<=line<275 and WP<=60‘
(We want to add value to this by avoiding teams getting ahead too early. It goes against the core logic of the system. If you’re above .600; you might start to loosen the belt and get cocky. That’ll only hurt our strategy’)
Finally, I wanted to add this one:
(’28>game number>1 and month!=3 and 105<=line<275 and WP<=60 and total>6.5′)
Totals below 7 are usually pitcher duals. Let’s avoid those and let pure chance, fielding and lucky triples get us to the coin flip.
POWERFUL SUBSET SYSTEM:
There are 10 out of eleven winning seasons and the one that lost was marginal and all the way back in 2005 (the first year in the database for this system).
Still at 2,893 games, but I’ll let it at this. You can improve on it with your own ideas.
I’d rather give out a broad system that should work no matter how you filter it down.
If you think that anything is back fitted here though you’ve missed the point.
Enjoy and have a great day!