136 Results for tag: sports
It is important to understand the
sports betting line because it is the beginning and the end for all handicapping decisions. Bettors must remember that they are not only handicapping a football game. They are also, and perhaps most importantly, handicapping the line.
But getting a grip on what the
sports betting line really means can be difficult. In the past we detailed the relationship between probability and the point spread. The probabilities of one team winning and one team losing, and of bettors betting on one team or the other, are the essential factors linemakers weigh when creating the point spreads they put on each football ...
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So much for "Dog month"!
Some of you are new. Last season I got absolutely hosed in September MLB and then did fairly well in postseason betting dogs in both situations. I'm wary of dogs this year; even though I've always preached September as the month of the dog.
I have a lot of theories on why dogs have struggling late season recently when prior to about 2012 they always rocked. I think the big one, for me at least, is that an extra wild card spot was added pushing all contenders to fight to the bitter end. A good move by the MLB probably, for business; however, it didn't ...
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For 1 Unit:
[918] Cincinnati Reds -122
vs Detroit Tigers @7:10PM
*All selections today are supported by raw number "Basics" Â and up.
In Cincinnati:
Here's an interesting trend:
Road dog Starters with zero wins go 46-105 -37.55 units in August.
Buck Farmer looking for his first win and Keyvius Sampson looking to just be above .500
History says Sampson will have the advantage here.
Detroit's bullpen has a nasty WHIP of 1.660 in Interleague games this season. Cincinnati's pen on the other hand has thrived during interleague play with solid overall ERA of 3.41 so our ...
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5-1 yesterday. Hell of a run we're on now going 16-3 since after the halfway point of this month. Here is what we played (tracked daily here: https://www.
sportscapping.com/tom-herbert.html):
MLB RAW NUMBERS
Game
Result
Status
Pick
Amount
Miami
Won
2:10 PM ET
Milwaukee -145
1.00
Milwaukee
-
Atlanta
Won
3:40 PM ET
San Diego -162
1.00
San Diego
Lost
  Over 6.5
 1.00
NY Mets
Won
7:05 PM ET
Baltimore -124
1.00
Baltimore
-
Chi. White Sox
Won
10:05 PM ET
LA Angels -131
1.00
LA Angels
Won
  Under 7.5
 1.00
*All selections are supported by ...
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Yesterday goes to show you: everything can add up (or at least a very huge amount of things) and it can all still go wrong.
I plan to go back and watch the Angel's game to snuff out what may have gone wrong, but I'm pretty sure I already know: Scoscia didn't get the team competitive fat and happy off of a long string of wins (as I pointed out yesterday). Do you pass in a situation like that where you have so many good things going for a bet, but there's a chance they'll let you down? Regression is too hard to call so the answer is to stay consistent with what you've been doing: be that, grinding it all, or safely passing. That's all there ...
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MLB RAW NUMBERS
Game
Result
Status
Pick
Amount
Oakland
WINNER!
7:05 PM ET
NY Yankees -101
1.00
NY Yankees
-
San Diego
WINNER!
7:05 PM ET
Pittsburgh -132
1.00
Pittsburgh
-
Daily Considerations: LAA, BAL, CUBS/STL U7, PIT/SDG U7, JAYS
Overall these are now 21-14-1 +6.02 units
Passing on the double header would have saved 2 losses. Good thing we passed on one of them. Should have done both I guess.
That brings up...
DOUBLE HEADER TIRED ROAD DOG SYSTEM:
(Just an aside ; doesn't apply to anything today)
1. It is Double Header Game 1 or Game 2.
2. We Fade the Road dog ...
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